I've been trying to find news on the primaries, but today I thought it might be interesting just to throw out some random thoughts to provoke discussion. These are not cogent arguments, but thoughts I have been working through. So react as you will, but don't take them as pronouncements of Truth.- Huckabee will do VERY well in Iowa, despite his comments about Mormonism. He will be used there and in New Hampshire to send a message "Don't take the Religious Right for granted." But once the point is made, his support will disappear.
- Fred Thompson does not want to be president. He is running, so that he would not look back on his life later and ask "Why didn't I try?"
- If the Democratic nominee is Barack Obama, and the Republicans nominate Rudy Guiliani, I could see myself voting for Obama so that I could tell my grandchildren that I voted for the first black president.
- The endorsement of Obama by Oprah will not be significant in Iowa or New Hampshire. But the importance will grow with time.
- If Ron Paul fails to win any of the Republican primaries, his followers will originate a new "vast conspiracy" theory to explain his loss, which will become a long-running internet meme.
- I still can't find anyone who is "Pro Hillary Clinton." I can find a lot of people who say they'll vote for her. But no one who likes her or thinks she'll do anything especially good for the country.
- I believe we will see a strong third-party run this cycle, from a person like Ross Perot talking about fiscal responsibility and accountability to the people.
- America is ready for a black, latino, and/or female president.
- If Mitt Romney is the GOP nominee, we will see a brief spike in people converting to Mormonism, which will be heavily covered by the media. It will be used by some religious and anti-religion people as evidence that Romney's election would be dangerous for the soul of America. But it will peter out quickly, and most of the converts will be the kind of lost souls who are "blown here and there by every wind of doctrine" and public whim. Most will not still consider themselves Mormons 4 years later.
There you go. React away. And don't worry, I already know I could be wrong about all of these.
5 comments:
Random fact: The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints (Mormons) is the fastest growing denomination in the world, it's also the fastest shrinking denomination in the world. In other words, they get lots of converts, but they don't stick.
I say that simply because I think that any spike in Mormon converts will be negligible in light of how many they're currently getting.
I agree that America is ready for a black, Latino or female president. The only people talking about the possibility that we're not ready are the Latino and female candidates. This way they can make themselves look like ground breakers on something that we're already prepared for.
I think that Hillary will be the Dean of this cycle - big lead at first, crash and burn when it really matters.
The Oprah endorsement will be biggest among Yuppie/blue state homemakers - a.k.a. 'soccer moms'. But I don't think her political endorsement will be as big as her literary endorsements.
I think that Obama will be the Democratic nominee, and I too could see myself voting for him over Rudy.
My random thoughts.
1. I think I agree.
2. I don't know... he isn't being covered much in the main stream, but he is campaigning more heavily in South Carolina. If you think about it, even Rudy hasn't been getting the press he used to because he has basically conceded Iowa and NH. So we'll see. I do think public perception is that he doesn't want it, and that is what counts, not what he actually feels.
3. I think I could too... but then my principles kick in and I think I could vote for Rudy... and then they kick in again and I think I would stay home or go 3rd party...
4. Totally. They already have that running I think...
5. I have met some, but mostly super bleeding heart liberal types. And not many of those (they seem to like Obama more).
6. Potentially. And if Guiliani wins the GOP, I might even vote for the 3rd party...
7. DEFINITELY. The only ones saying we aren't, interestingly, are the liberal Dems. This also brings up the point that regardless of who the Dems choose, they will get 90 some percent of the black vote. So they don't have a huge incentive to push Obama, where they might get more women if Hillary wins the nomination, and you can bet that who can bring in the most votes outside of the base is factored into their calculations.
8. I think definitely and increased interest, but I don't know about conversions. We probably will see a few more Mormon characters on TV and in movies, and more Mormon themed media like we see now with Christian themed media (which is due to "Passion" but also to the increased "power" that evangelicals are seen to have by electing Bush).
To Sean's comment about Hillary being Dean... I hope so. But she has a huge machine, Bill as a supporter (who is still loved) and lots of money. So here's hoping.
Really, no Hillary? I think she will do very well. She got one, two rounds on the bench in the White House and now she is running for first string Quarterback.
Although she has no sentimental qualities and is cold as ice... she is quite intelligent and very articulate. She has the most experience.
Its a win/win as far as I am concerned. Blue or Blue.
I do love Barack. Really. The Obamagasim.
P.S. I was just randomly "next blogging" and found you. And I saw the Hillary comment so I thought I would let you know one...Pro Hillary.
Welcome to Mod-Blog, Ms. Kennedy! We are glad to have you here.
Honestly, I have been asking around my many liberal friends here in CT and NONE of them like HIllary Clinton. Many of them plan to vote for her because "She can beat the Bushites" but all of them would prefer Obama , Edwards, or even Richardson over her.
Of course, in some ways that is better than where I am as a Conservative. None of the GOP candidates or the Democratic candidates really excite me.
Hillary Clinton has no real EXECUTIVE experience. She wasn't "on the bench" twice, she was the wife of the coach. Does that make her the most qualified candidate?
I have no problem with a person running on experience as a senator (Obama, McCain, Dodd, whoever) but when they run on having experience because they were the first lady? Please... I doubt she is the most qualified candidate of the group, either party, and certainly isn't the most qualified person out there.
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