Wins vs Delegates: Turning the Race on its Head

So, after last night's win, Hillary Clinton and John McCain are the front-runners, right? Not so fast! The political wags and major news reports make it seem that way, but in actuality Huckabee is still in the lead, and Clinton holds a very small edge in the actual delegate couts. And it is being ignored so far that even though Clinton "won the state" in New Hampshire, she got the same number of delegates as Obama.

In the overall race for the nomination, Clinton leads with 187 delegates, including separately chosen party and elected officials known as superdelegates. She is followed by Obama with 89 delegates and Edwards with 50...

In the overall race for the nomination, Huckabee leads with 31 delegates, followed by Romney with 19 delegates and McCain with seven.

This is an important reminder to us all to take the news coverage with a grain of salt. A win is not a win is not a win. And it is the overall count of delegates that decides the nominee. And actually, it is the delegates who decide, because many are not required by law to vote for the person they promised to vote for.

Vote Swapping Sites Are Legal

In the 2000 election, a new breed of website popped up which was both weird and fascinating. Vote swapping sites would allow a voter in a state with a close vote in the Presidential election (say Bush 45%, Gore 46%, Nader 9%) to swap their vote with a voter in a state where the election was clearly lopsided (say Bush 60%, Gore 35%, Nader 5%). A voter in the close state might "swap" a Nader vote in his state with a Gore vote in the lopsided state. This way, a Nader voter in the close-vote state could still ensure Nader's numerical number of votes stayed the same, without risking "throwing away his vote" when s/he would rather see Gore elected than Bush. At the time, most politicians were scandalized, and several sites were shut down by furious election officials. And the practical amongst us noted that it was a silly venture to use, since with a secret ballot there was no way to ensure the transaction actually took place on the other person's end.

Well, after years of legal wrangling, the courts have ruled vote swapping legal and efforts to shut down such websites as violating Free Speech! What does this mean? Probably not much in the short term, other than the return of vote swapping sites and much excitement amongst Ron Paul voters. But in the long term, in an age of close elections, it could be significant. Especially once political consultants figure out how to manipulate it for their own gain.